European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 42 games
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 42 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
Level UP
Tusk
lupsione · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 7 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Snapfire
Gilgir · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nikobaby · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
664 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
577 picks · 593 bans
Tusk
472 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
472 picks · 318 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1080 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 695 bans
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 996 bans
Mars
382 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 37%
Hero pool strength63% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
Zero Tenacity 75%Level UP 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
Windrangerchempik
BrewmasterNefrit
UnderlordNorma
Ember SpiritWorick
Earth Spiritlupsione
DazzleMoOz
Jakiromonodrama
Shadow ShamandEsire
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Zero Tenacity 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 21:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKami
Morphlingchempik
Ember SpiritWorick
UnderlordNorma
TidehunterNefrit
Chenmonodrama
Shadow DemondEsire
Shadow Shamanlupsione
JakiroMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2