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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Most Wantedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 42 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 37 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 33 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 26 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 23 games
61%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 11 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
90%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Rein · 8 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
728 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 262 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
419 picks · 267 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 692 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 431 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
360 picks · 222 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:46
Zero Tenacity 53%Most Wanted 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckWorick
47% · 433 games51% · 268 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistKami
52% · 82 games54% · 172 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
46% · 83 games56% · 163 games
Marci423
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
45% · 225 games51% · 362 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 258 games52% · 116 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct43:21
Zero Tenacity 51%Most Wanted 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
54% · 178 games56% · 379 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
51% · 166 games53% · 155 games
Naga Siren423
Naga Siren
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWorick
43% · 304 games54% · 400 games
BristlebackfortniteMan
Bristleback
Jakiro
JakiroSe
37% · 405 games52% · 329 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskdEsire
47% · 400 games53% · 190 games
BaneRein
Bane
Game 3prediction correct45:15
Zero Tenacity 55%Most Wanted 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
51% · 308 games51% · 362 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
40% · 97 games61% · 15 games
Kez423
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
51% · 392 games60% · 290 games
BristlebackfortniteMan
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
47% · 260 games51% · 269 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
45% · 278 games50% · 399 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3