European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 45 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 41 game
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 32 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 28 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
Most Wanted
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 12 games
Pucksignature
niche · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
743 picks · 351 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 634 bans
Hoodwink
540 picks · 289 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1182 bans
Tusk
435 picks · 260 bans
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 475 bans
Mars
427 picks · 709 bans
Jakiro
383 picks · 246 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Most Wanted
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Zero Tenacity 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkKami
Necrophosniche
Ember SpiritWorick
Batrider423
Dragon KnightNefrit
BristlebackfortniteMan
TinydEsire
RubickPonlo
JakiroSe
TuskRein
Game 2prediction missed19:36
Zero Tenacity 51%Most Wanted 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckWorick
Timbersawniche
BristlebackNefrit
Broodmother423
UrsaKami
EnigmafortniteMan
GrimstrokedEsire
TuskPonlo
BatriderSe
BaneRein
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2