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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
42%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
gotthejuice · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
567 picks · 732 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 360 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 658 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 551 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 131 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 181 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 620 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 540 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total87% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
Zero Tenacity 26%Natus Vincere 74%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
49% · 119 games48% · 320 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
51% · 284 games54% · 147 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
51% · 361 game55% · 468 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMoOz
49% · 282 games50% · 452 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Tusk
TuskdEsire
45% · 444 games47% · 103 games
LionZayac
Lion
Game 2prediction correct15:25
Zero Tenacity 27%Natus Vincere 73%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
49% · 100 games47% · 435 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
60% · 264 games54% · 124 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
48% · 166 games49% · 333 games
Marspma
Mars
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
48% · 308 games52% · 40 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
45% · 285 games49% · 191 game
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 87%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2