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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 35 games
51%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 35 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 34 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 34 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 30 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 28 games
61%

Natus Vincere Junior

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gothic- · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 12 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 817 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 545 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 390 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
421 picks · 292 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 650 bans
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
384 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 579 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
345 picks · 516 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 17%
Hero pool strength69% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total95% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Zero Tenacity 83%Natus Vincere Junior 17%
The model gave 83% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
43% · 196 games47% · 322 games
UrsaonLiTaL
Ursa
Puck
PuckWorick
54% · 592 games52% · 343 games
Batriderkrol9ash
Batrider
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 547 games48% · 520 games
Dragon Knightgbc
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinydEsire
51% · 605 games48% · 609 games
TuskGothic-
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
53% · 285 games53% · 431 game
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct32:6
Zero Tenacity 85%Natus Vincere Junior 15%
The model gave 85% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
48% · 252 games55% · 88 games
MorphlingonLiTaL
Morphling
Largo
LargoNefrit
64% · 81 game51% · 72 games
Brewmasterkrol9ash
Brewmaster
Huskar
HuskarWorick
48% · 65 games40% · 313 games
Tinygbc
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
49% · 191 game44% · 109 games
Skywrath MageGothic-
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMoOz
58% · 87 games48% · 94 games
DazzleHyugadoto
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 95%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2