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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 28 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 23 games
48%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 22 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
55%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
534 picks · 733 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 574 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
491 picks · 612 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
484 picks · 578 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 410 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 802 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
446 picks · 984 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
Zero Tenacity 37%Night Pulse 63%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRetsu
52% · 274 games57% · 238 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
51% · 225 games49% · 474 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
42% · 32 games43% · 199 games
DawnbreakerDavai
Dawnbreaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLeBronDota
56% · 346 games44% · 185 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Lion
LionPablo
52% · 252 games50% · 33 games
RikidEsire
Riki
Game 2prediction missed42:47
Zero Tenacity 38%Night Pulse 62%
The model gave 62% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
44% · 84 games49% · 125 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Puck
PuckStojkov
51% · 147 games50% · 94 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
58% · 144 games50% · 119 games
DawnbreakerDavai
Dawnbreaker
Riki
RikiPablo
53% · 33 games48% · 181 game
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Lich
LichLeBronDota
44% · 162 games53% · 51 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct1:38
Zero Tenacity 37%Night Pulse 63%
The model gave 63% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRetsu
46% · 196 games57% · 203 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Lina
LinaStojkov
56% · 103 games53% · 75 games
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
50% · 189 games44% · 180 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaLeBronDota
52% · 124 games40% · 158 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Riki
RikiPablo
55% · 33 games53% · 29 games
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 74%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3