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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 22 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 10 games
40%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
531 picks · 726 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
493 picks · 572 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
487 picks · 612 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 411 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 575 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
445 picks · 801 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
443 picks · 977 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:25
Zero Tenacity 35%Night Pulse 65%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRetsu
44% · 248 games55% · 203 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Lina
LinaStojkov
48% · 184 games57% · 87 games
Sand KingDavai
Sand King
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
52% · 305 games50% · 272 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Riki
RikiPablo
55% · 46 games49% · 236 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Lich
LichLeBronDota
49% · 192 games46% · 177 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct33:39
Zero Tenacity 32%Night Pulse 68%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
46% · 223 games53% · 213 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Lina
LinaStojkov
48% · 93 games45% · 56 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Phoenix
PhoenixNefrit
53% · 251 game54% · 150 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Tusk
TuskPablo
41% · 153 games50% · 180 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Abaddon
AbaddonLeBronDota
50% · 21 game59% · 142 games
Elder TitanKidaro
Elder Titan
Game 4prediction missed26:10
Zero Tenacity 31%Night Pulse 69%
The model gave 69% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
53% · 356 games48% · 354 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
42% · 41 game54% · 471 game
TinyWorick
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierStojkov
43% · 444 games56% · 147 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Lion
LionPablo
46% · 255 games55% · 106 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Marci
MarciLeBronDota
44% · 121 game58% · 139 games
Elder TitanKidaro
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 79%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3