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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 36 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 29 games
59%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 28 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
61%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
541 picks · 879 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 389 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 641 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 833 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 585 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 486 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:14
Zero Tenacity 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
46% · 182 games52% · 221 game
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
49% · 177 games60% · 38 games
Drow RangerSumaiL
Drow Ranger
Huskar
HuskarWorick
48% · 67 games52% · 341 game
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
39% · 287 games53% · 145 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
52% · 42 games74% · 10 games
LargoOmaR
Largo
Game 2prediction correct18:27
Zero Tenacity 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
46% · 234 games48% · 215 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
41% · 103 games56% · 545 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWorick
47% · 329 games56% · 383 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Tiny
TinydEsire
46% · 428 games53% · 245 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
52% · 383 games54% · 89 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct24:26
Zero Tenacity 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerKami
46% · 144 games50% · 83 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
52% · 74 games60% · 56 games
Clinkzrincyq
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWorick
51% · 210 games49% · 34 games
RazorNo!ob
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
45% · 103 games48% · 306 games
TinyOmaR
Tiny
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
52% · 32 games53% · 84 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 67%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3