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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 20 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 17 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 12 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 24 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
459 picks · 373 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 541 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 483 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 194 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
364 picks · 588 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
360 picks · 401 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
339 picks · 857 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Zero Tenacity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
53% · 243 games40% · 217 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
54% · 120 games49% · 244 games
MagnusNine
Magnus
Tiny
TinyStojkov
54% · 275 games42% · 58 games
Night StalkerCeb
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickPablo
54% · 239 games55% · 148 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
50% · 109 games49% · 319 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct40:35
Zero Tenacity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:06:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
51% · 200 games41% · 43 games
Anti-Mage23savage
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
50% · 130 games49% · 52 games
LycanCeb
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
49% · 142 games51% · 235 games
MagnusNine
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaPablo
48% · 149 games57% · 128 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
52% · 220 games47% · 383 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 67%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2