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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 22 games
36%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 20 games
40%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tiny
QBFY · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 14 games
43%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
niche · 12 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
kreker · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 590 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 383 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
380 picks · 417 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
360 picks · 212 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
337 picks · 713 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 831 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 636 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:28
Zero Tenacity 53%Passion UA 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
51% · 182 games55% · 43 games
HuskarBatyuk
Huskar
Puck
PuckMirage
53% · 201 game45% · 151 game
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
54% · 101 game50% · 147 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
43% · 77 games55% · 212 games
Shadow ShamanQBFY
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
48% · 74 games47% · 82 games
Undyingkreker
Undying
Game 2prediction missed9:25
Zero Tenacity 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNande
59% · 27 games57% · 80 games
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Puck
PuckMirage
50% · 245 games40% · 122 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
53% · 118 games42% · 124 games
Shadow FiendMoonlight
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderSe
52% · 339 games49% · 139 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionyamich
55% · 115 games50% · 379 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2