EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 28 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 22 games
Largosignature
Nefrit · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
PuckChamp
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 6 games
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 6 games
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 5 games
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
Clockwerk
348 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 339 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 228 bans
Bane
304 picks · 294 bans
Pangolier
289 picks · 394 bans
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Zero Tenacity 74%PuckChamp 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
Enigmakrol9ash
DoomMikSa`
Linaxn丶e
Ember SpiritWorick
TinyYuragi
Grimstrokemrls
HoodwinkHyugadoto
ClockwerkMoOz
TechiesGothic-
Game 2prediction correct28:30
Zero Tenacity 73%PuckChamp 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
NecrophosYuragi
SnapfireWorick
Beastmasterkrol9ash
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Pangolierxn丶e
Grimstrokemrls
RingmasterHyugadoto
BaneMoOz
TechiesGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2