Zero Tenacity vs Rottweilas — prediction Paragon Turbina · Dota 2

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Paragon Turbina · BO1

result vs prediction

Zero Tenacitywin 1:0

series probability

81%19%

probability at match start · final 1:0

RRottweilasloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwinksignature

dEsire · 37 games

62%

Ember Spiritsignature

Worick · 32 games

69%

Phoenixsignature

MoOz · 29 games

66%

Ringmaster

dEsire · 27 games

48%

Tinyoften banned

Kami · 25 games

52%

Jakirosignature

MoOz · 24 games

71%

Beastmasteroften banned

Nefrit · 21 game

43%

Bristlebackoften banned

Nefrit · 21 game

48%

Rottweilas

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

495 picks · 354 bans

53%

Rubick

386 picks · 234 bans

46%

Clockwerk

338 picks · 634 bans

56%

Tiny

337 picks · 347 bans

50%

Windranger

316 picks · 230 bans

49%

Pangolier

298 picks · 397 bans

52%

Bane

293 picks · 283 bans

61%

Storm Spirit

287 picks · 310 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total81% Zero Tenacity

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct37:12

Zero Tenacity 69%Rottweilas 31%

The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo