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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 22 games
36%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 21 game
38%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 409 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 210 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
332 picks · 718 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
323 picks · 631 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 820 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total55% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:17
Zero Tenacity 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
47% · 225 games46% · 80 games
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
49% · 87 games53% · 99 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
47% · 110 games55% · 172 games
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Dark Seer
Ringmaster
Ringmasteryamich
56% · 98 games49% · 190 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 80 games56% · 59 games
Ogre MagiHduo
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed45:26
Zero Tenacity 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoNande
54% · 10 games52% · 151 game
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
49% · 86 games43% · 48 games
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
48% · 108 games49% · 44 games
UndyingAlberkaaa
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 71 gamelittle data
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Ringmaster
Ringmasteryamich
59% · 142 games51% · 174 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2