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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 37 games
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 31 game
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
40%

Silk

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Michael · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 946 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 438 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
486 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 632 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 960 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 661 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
397 picks · 242 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 22%
Hero pool strength60% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Zero Tenacity 73%Silk 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
51% · 168 games50% · 112 games
SlarkDaaD-
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
58% · 175 games35% · 106 games
BrewmasterAdrx
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
58% · 301 game51% · 485 games
TinyGenek
Tiny
Chen
ChenMoOz
59% · 75 games44% · 147 games
Skywrath MageMichael
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
50% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct16:1
Zero Tenacity 74%Silk 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 12:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorKami
54% · 49 games50% · 40 games
KezDaaD-
Kez
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
54% · 120 games47% · 127 games
UnderlordAdrx
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
48% · 219 games49% · 302 games
WarlockMichael
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
55% · 141 game42% · 119 games
ClockwerkGenek
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
56% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2