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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 37 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 31 game
77%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Wits · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 444 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 375 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 249 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 529 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
433 picks · 371 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 880 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
358 picks · 902 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 217 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:47
Zero Tenacity 49%South America Rejects 51%
The model gave 51% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 1:05:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKami
49% · 60 games43% · 319 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
60% · 164 games45% · 76 games
LunaWits
Luna
Doom
DoomNefrit
59% · 162 games42% · 143 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
52% · 327 games48% · 74 games
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Treant Protector
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
48% · 120 games53% · 221 game
RubickScofield
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Zero Tenacity 48%South America Rejects 52%
The model gave 52% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
46% · 128 games48% · 404 games
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
43% · 300 games46% · 384 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
55% · 321 game49% · 225 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
53% · 354 games44% · 131 game
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickMoOz
58% · 153 games57% · 112 games
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 57%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2