Zero Tenacity vs summer bear — prediction EPLS 38 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3

result vs prediction

Zero Tenacitywin 2:0

series probability

91%9%

probability at match start · final 2:0

summer bearloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink

dEsire · 34 games

59%

Jakirosignature

MoOz · 33 games

67%

Bristlebackoften banned

Nefrit · 30 games

57%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Worick · 29 games

59%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Nefrit · 27 games

41%

Phoenixsignature

MoOz · 26 games

69%

Ringmaster

MoOz · 26 games

54%

Tiny

Worick · 26 games

42%

summer bear

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

610 picks · 386 bans

54%

Rubick

507 picks · 279 bans

50%

Phoenix

491 picks · 577 bans

51%

Tiny

467 picks · 387 bans

49%

Pangolier

416 picks · 580 bans

49%

Puck

347 picks · 952 bans

54%

Tusk

338 picks · 280 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

333 picks · 498 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total91% Zero Tenacity

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct37:31

Zero Tenacity 76%summer bear 24%

The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:10:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo