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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Aionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
66%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 23 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 21 game
67%

Team Aion

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 368 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
420 picks · 254 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 364 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 636 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 423 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
324 picks · 232 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
291 picks · 313 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
286 picks · 219 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Zero Tenacity 70%Team Aion 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinynesfeer
44% · 425 games57% · 83 games
ClinkzRetsu
Clinkz
Viper
ViperWorick
46% · 116 games59% · 343 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
45% · 115 games56% · 359 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMoOz
45% · 81 game54% · 139 games
DazzleKrinzhik
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
36% · 187 games
Game 2prediction correct25:9
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Aion 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
51% · 145 games54% · 73 games
AlchemistRetsu
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
37% · 41 game49% · 21 game
LinaMo13ei
Lina
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
50% · 32 games43% · 33 games
Miranaxsvampire
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorMoOz
53% · 83 games50% · 223 games
RingmasterKrinzhik
Ringmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmrls
59% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 85%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2