FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TLTeam Luckeer4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 26 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
Lion
Pablo · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
Muertasignature
Pablo · 18 games
Team Luckeer4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 578 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 554 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 531 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 771 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 461 bans
Lion
402 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 871 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 82%Team Luckeer4 18%
The model gave 82% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 82%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1