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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 46 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 43 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 27 games
37%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 27 games
52%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
45%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
14%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
789 picks · 362 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
581 picks · 578 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 301 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
497 picks · 339 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
495 picks · 584 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 271 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1114 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:29
Zero Tenacity 66%Team Lynx 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
46% · 161 game50% · 140 games
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
43% · 59 games56% · 141 game
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Axe
AxeNefrit
50% · 86 games52% · 270 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranadEsire
55% · 31 game
Tusk
TuskKyzko
47% · 214 games
Game 2prediction missed20:36
Zero Tenacity 65%Team Lynx 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
53% · 197 games49% · 327 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckWorick
51% · 177 games46% · 142 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
53% · 164 games47% · 151 game
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKyzko
55% · 57 games
Mirana
MiranadEsire
51% · 25 games
Game 3prediction correct35:6
Zero Tenacity 63%Team Lynx 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
52% · 58 games50% · 324 games
Dragon Knightmellojul
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
49% · 156 games51% · 264 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
47% · 131 game60% · 150 games
Medusa7jesu
Medusa
Disruptor
DisruptorKyzko
48% · 202 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
38% · 191 game
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3