DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 48 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 39 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 36 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 35 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 27 games
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 17 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
644 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 457 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 417 bans
Warlock
436 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 414 bans
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1110 bans
Puck
395 picks · 855 bans
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total54% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Zero Tenacity 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
Muerta7jesu
BeastmasterNefrit
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
TinyWorick
Razormellojul
TuskdEsire
RubickQBFY
RingmasterMoOz
Treant Protectorkreker
Game 2prediction correct43:42
Zero Tenacity 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:12:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKami
Beastmastermellojul
Storm SpiritWorick
Monkey King7jesu
MuertadEsire
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
BrewmasterNefrit
Venomancerkreker
EnchantressMoOz
RubickQBFY
Game 3prediction missed25:24
Zero Tenacity 52%Team Lynx 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKami
Luna7jesu
BeastmasterNefrit
Razormellojul
Void SpiritWorick
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
DisruptorMoOz
Treant Protectorkreker
GrimstrokedEsire
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 54%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3