Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 38 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 33 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 25 games
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 23 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 22 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 20 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
587 picks · 357 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 578 bans
Rubick
471 picks · 252 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
395 picks · 546 bans
Puck
334 picks · 900 bans
Beastmaster
327 picks · 833 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Team Lynx
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Zero Tenacity 55%Team Lynx 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
Juggernaut7jesu
PuckWorick
Tinymellojul
EnigmaMikSa`
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
Nyx AssassindEsire
Techieskreker
BaneMoOz
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Zero Tenacity 56%Team Lynx 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerKami
Lifestealer7jesu
LargoMikSa`
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Ember SpiritWorick
Storm Spiritmellojul
RingmasterdEsire
Phoenixkreker
Treant ProtectorMoOz
RubickQBFY
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Zero Tenacity 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 24:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKami
Anti-Mage7jesu
Storm SpiritWorick
Razormellojul
BatriderMikSa`
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
ClockwerkMoOz
Phoenixkreker
Skywrath MagedEsire
WindrangerQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3