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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 30 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 29 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 23 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 23 games
52%
Undying
Undyingsignature
MikSa` · 19 games
63%

Team Lynx

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
54%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 25 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
39%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
352 picks · 151 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 158 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 467 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 460 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
282 picks · 259 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total69% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:26
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:30.
Game 2prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 3prediction missed23:37
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 69%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3