FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TMTeam Mansafloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 26 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
Lion
Pablo · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
Muertasignature
Pablo · 18 games
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 3 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Marcioften banned
islA · 2 games
Muerta
islA · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 580 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 555 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 532 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 772 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 463 bans
Lion
402 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
399 picks · 872 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:47
Zero Tenacity 74%Team Mansaf 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Mansaf in 36:45.
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Zero Tenacity 74%Team Mansaf 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 23:50.
Game 3prediction correct18:10
Zero Tenacity 74%Team Mansaf 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3