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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 23 games
78%

TNL DOTA

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 5 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 4 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 614 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 248 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
439 picks · 391 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
432 picks · 471 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 361 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 563 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 538 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:40
Zero Tenacity 55%TNL DOTA 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 47:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
57% · 139 games50% · 99 games
Kunkkadualrazee
Kunkka
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
49% · 174 games48% · 111 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
54% · 197 games39% · 104 games
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
Marciyamich
47% · 152 games52% · 199 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSe
52% · 90 games51% · 239 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed18:31
Zero Tenacity 52%TNL DOTA 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
50% · 192 games48% · 68 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
45% · 178 games50% · 240 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
46% · 284 games49% · 421 game
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
55% · 275 games61% · 146 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockSe
55% · 140 games42% · 194 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2