CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
Warlock
LeBronDota · 23 games
Rubick
Pablo · 21 game
TNL DOTA
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 9 games
Batridersignature
dualrazee · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
Norma · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
505 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
Tusk
351 picks · 368 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
321 picks · 701 bans
Nature's Prophet
301 picks · 550 bans
Dark Willow
300 picks · 195 bans
Ringmaster
297 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:39
Zero Tenacity 47%TNL DOTA 53%
The model gave 53% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNefrit
Nature's Prophetyowaai
GyrocopterNande
Ember Spiritdualrazee
LeshracStojkov
MarciNorma
Tinyyamich
Enchantressflacko
UndyingSe
BatriderFernans
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Zero Tenacity 50%TNL DOTA 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNande
Templar Assassinyowaai
PuckStojkov
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Death ProphetNefrit
Primal BeastNorma
EnchantressSe
Dark WillowFernans
Pudgeyamich
Tuskflacko
Game 3prediction correct8:23
Zero Tenacity 49%TNL DOTA 51%
The model gave 51% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNande
Templar Assassinyowaai
Dark SeerNefrit
Invokerdualrazee
Storm SpiritStojkov
UnderlordNorma
DazzleSe
Pugnaflacko
Tuskyamich
MarciFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 51%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3