PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VValinorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 28 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 28 games
Warlock
Se · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Lion
Jeezy · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
552 picks · 838 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 583 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 765 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 588 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 549 bans
Mars
342 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Valinor
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:27
Zero Tenacity 70%Valinor 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightKami
Templar AssassinCoblackk
UnderlordNefrit
TinyG.T.I
ViperWorick
MarsWuiter
Shadow DemonMoOz
HoodwinkJeezy
Nyx AssassindEsire
WarlockStoic
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Zero Tenacity 71%Valinor 29%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
KezCoblackk
ViperWorick
SniperG.T.I
BristlebackNefrit
UnderlordWuiter
WarlockMoOz
Spirit BreakerJeezy
TuskdEsire
DisruptorStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 83%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2