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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
46%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 446 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 540 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
346 picks · 662 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 454 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 680 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 232 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 86 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Zero Tenacity 39%Virtus.pro 61%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
51% · 104 games49% · 163 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
49% · 153 games54% · 122 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Slark
SlarkNande
56% · 65 games45% · 209 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
44% · 138 games50% · 97 games
Shadow ShamanAntares
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
48% · 171 game59% · 40 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed30:16
Zero Tenacity 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNande
52% · 105 games42% · 160 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
49% · 123 games45% · 124 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
49% · 122 games52% · 31 game
OmniknightDaxak
Omniknight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
52% · 82 games56% · 114 games
Shadow ShamanAntares
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
46% · 50 games61% · 53 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct12:24
Zero Tenacity 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNande
51% · 109 games47% · 109 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
52% · 312 games48% · 119 games
SniperLorenof
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
60% · 209 games48% · 211 games
DoomDaxak
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
47% · 126 games42% · 293 games
TuskAntares
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
52% · 86 games53% · 110 games
Shadow ShamanRein
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3