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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 28 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 24 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 22 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 17 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
454 picks · 433 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
454 picks · 231 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 950 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 150 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 226 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
288 picks · 657 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 671 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:22
Zero Tenacity 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirage
50% · 275 games44% · 68 games
RazorTimado
Razor
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
51% · 170 games47% · 107 games
LycanDaxak
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey King423
58% · 236 games46% · 314 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJeezy
45% · 38 games50% · 284 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroSe
55% · 225 games51% · 171 game
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Zero Tenacity 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa423
51% · 220 games52% · 137 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMirage
55% · 213 games45% · 252 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
50% · 123 games55% · 202 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJeezy
48% · 26 games45% · 170 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
50% · 185 games43% · 6 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 80%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2