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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 14 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 13 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
88%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
MikSa` · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%

Winter Bear

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 659 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 511 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 557 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
367 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
341 picks · 376 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
320 picks · 245 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
318 picks · 882 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength62% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:37
Zero Tenacity 52%Winter Bear 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 55:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
38% · 36 games57% · 247 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDaaD-
40% · 6 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
31% · 35 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
46% · 70 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
60% · 100 games
Game 2prediction correct28:5
Zero Tenacity 52%Winter Bear 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistDaaD-
67% · 66 games51% · 230 games
ClockwerkjAMES
Clockwerk
Lina
LinaStojkov
42% · 20 games
Sand King
Sand KingNefrit
49% · 53 games
Muerta
MuertaPablo
45% · 56 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
44% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 53%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2