European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xxanblloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 22 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 21 game
Dark Willow
jAMES · 21 game
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
Lion
Pablo · 15 games
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
486 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 536 bans
Lion
424 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 724 bans
Phoenix
406 picks · 483 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
360 picks · 940 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:27
Zero Tenacity 72%xanbl 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:37.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
Zero Tenacity 72%xanbl 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 72%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2