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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 3:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
30%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 576 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 415 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 394 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 523 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
335 picks · 202 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
331 picks · 716 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
330 picks · 619 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 785 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3