EPL Championship Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 3:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 41 game
Warlock
Se · 36 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 31 game
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 29 games
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 26 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
554 picks · 911 bans
Tusk
528 picks · 403 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 653 bans
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 613 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 874 bans
Ember Spirit
376 picks · 611 bans
Mars
361 picks · 505 bans
Warlock
358 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total62% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Zero Tenacity 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKami
BrewmasterInfernal
ViperWorick
Windrangerbottega
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Storm SpiritMirele
JakiroMoOz
RingmasterHtrd
Nyx AssassindEsire
Largoprblms
Game 2prediction correct35:11
Zero Tenacity 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKami
Abaddonbottega
Ember SpiritWorick
Storm SpiritMirele
TidehunterNefrit
BrewmasterInfernal
JakiroMoOz
RingmasterHtrd
Nyx AssassindEsire
Largoprblms
Game 3prediction correct40:23
Zero Tenacity 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKami
Dragon KnightMirele
BeastmasterNefrit
Storm Spiritbottega
Ember SpiritWorick
BrewmasterInfernal
DisruptorMoOz
Hoodwinkprblms
Nyx AssassindEsire
RingmasterHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3