DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zone Academywin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Advance Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zone Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 276 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 453 bans
Rubick
320 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
Windranger
304 picks · 425 bans
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 469 bans
Enchantress
296 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Zone Academy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Advance Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zone Academy 47%Advance Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by Zone Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAdvance Esports · 53%
Series resultZone Academy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1