DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zone Academywin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AEAmbrella Esportloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zone Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Ambrella Esport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
538 picks · 757 bans
Muerta
439 picks · 323 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
Phantom Assassin
399 picks · 695 bans
Bristleback
392 picks · 883 bans
Magnus
389 picks · 1043 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Zone Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Zone Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:32
Zone Academy 68%Ambrella Esport 32%
The model gave 68% on Zone Academy — the game was taken by Zone Academy in 28:47.
Game 2prediction missed38:48
Zone Academy 68%Ambrella Esport 32%
The model gave 68% on Zone Academy — the game was taken by Ambrella Esport in 31:06.
Game 3prediction correct43:19
Zone Academy 68%Ambrella Esport 32%
The model gave 68% on Zone Academy — the game was taken by Zone Academy in 23:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteZone Academy · 68%
Series resultZone Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3