Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
79%63%
100 Thieves · 15 mapsedge 100 Thieves +16%1win · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
59%63%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsnearly even -4%1win · 12 maps
Mirage1win ban
62%41%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +21%1win · 13 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
44%38%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%1win · 9 maps
Inferno1win pick
50%71%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 1win +21%1win · 3 maps
Nuke1win ban
53%50%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsnearly even +3%1win · 0 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%64%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge 1win +14%1win · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. Pick1win take Inferno
5. Ban1win remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
DeciderAncient (59% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
100 Thieves 43%1win 57%
The model gave 57% on 1win — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
100 Thieves 59%1win 41%
The model gave 59% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 62%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2