Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno100 Thieves pick
50%50%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
NukeA Great Chaos ban
50%50%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
AncientA Great Chaos pick
40%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
MirageA Great Chaos ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Mirage
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickA Great Chaos take Ancient
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
100 Thieves 57%A Great Chaos 43%
The model gave 57% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
100 Thieves 43%A Great Chaos 57%
The model gave 57% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 73%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2