Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#35 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EAC#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEAC pick
50%52%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsnearly even -2%EAC · 17 maps
Mirage100 Thieves pick
56%45%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +11%EAC · 18 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
45%50%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge EAC +5%EAC · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +0%EAC · 10 maps
InfernoEAC ban
50%42%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +8%EAC · 8 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%57%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge EAC +7%EAC · 10 maps
Dust2EAC ban
69%40%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +29%EAC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Mirage
4. PickEAC take Ancient
5. BanEAC remove Inferno
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
100 Thieves 57%EAC 43%
The model gave 57% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct19:16
100 Thieves 61%EAC 39%
The model gave 61% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 66%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2