BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oramond#119 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOramond pick
56%67%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge Oramond +11%Oramond · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%43%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Oramond · 3 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%55%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +5%Oramond · 7 maps
Dust2100 Thieves ban
60%45%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +15%Oramond · 7 maps
AncientOramond ban
50%60%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge Oramond +10%Oramond · 1 map
InfernoOramond ban
56%50%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%Oramond · 2 maps
Overpass100 Thieves pick
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Oramond · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanOramond remove Inferno
3. Pick100 Thieves take Overpass
4. PickOramond take Mirage
5. BanOramond remove Ancient
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
100 Thieves 61%Oramond 39%
The model gave 61% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
100 Thieves 43%Oramond 57%
The model gave 57% on Oramond — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 66%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2