NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage1win ban
41%70%
1win · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +29%Butterfly · 6 maps
Dust21win pick
64%70%
1win · 10 mapsedge Butterfly +6%Butterfly · 6 maps
AncientButterfly pick
62%78%
1win · 9 mapsedge Butterfly +16%Butterfly · 5 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
36%40%
1win · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Butterfly · 1 map
InfernoButterfly ban
71%25%
1win · 3 mapsedge 1win +46%Butterfly · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%67%
1win · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Butterfly · 2 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%60%
1win · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +10%Butterfly · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
DeciderCache (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
1win 50%Butterfly 50%
The model gave 50% on 1win — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
1win 47%Butterfly 53%
The model gave 53% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 50%
Series resultButterfly 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2