European Pro League Series 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 2:3series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
73%53%
1win · 7 mapsedge 1win +20%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
MirageEternal Fire pick
36%58%
1win · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +22%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
56%62%
1win · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +6%Eternal Fire · 9 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
50%44%
1win · 4 mapsedge 1win +6%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%57%
1win · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +24%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%50%
1win · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
Cache1win pick
67%60%
1win · 2 mapsedge 1win +7%Eternal Fire · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. Pick1win take Cache
6. PickEternal Fire take Mirage
DeciderOverpass (33% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
1win 72%Eternal Fire 28%
The model gave 72% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
1win 41%Eternal Fire 59%
The model gave 59% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
1win 31%Eternal Fire 69%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by 1win.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
1win 54%Eternal Fire 46%
The model gave 54% on 1win — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
1win 56%Eternal Fire 44%
The model gave 56% on 1win — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 54%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 5