NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INOX Division#63 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
62%64%
1win · 17 mapsnearly even -2%INOX Division · 18 maps
Ancientpossible decider
61%60%
1win · 14 mapsnearly even +1%INOX Division · 16 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
57%66%
1win · 3 mapsedge INOX Division +9%INOX Division · 25 maps
Anubis1win ban
44%54%
1win · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 9 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%71%
1win · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +21%INOX Division · 20 maps
CacheINOX Division ban
64%50%
1win · 7 mapsedge 1win +14%INOX Division · 8 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%50%
1win · 12 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Cache
6. Ban1win remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (61% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
1win 38%INOX Division 62%
The model gave 62% on INOX Division — the map was taken by 1win.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
1win 66%INOX Division 34%
The model gave 66% on 1win — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
1win 51%INOX Division 49%
The model gave 51% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 72%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3