Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
59%36%
1win · 13 mapsedge 1win +23%Liquid · 7 maps
MirageLiquid ban
41%43%
1win · 13 mapsnearly even -2%Liquid · 3 maps
AnubisLiquid pick
36%58%
1win · 7 mapsedge Liquid +22%Liquid · 8 maps
AncientLiquid ban
67%50%
1win · 11 mapsedge 1win +17%Liquid · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%63%
1win · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Liquid · 4 maps
Inferno1win ban
71%63%
1win · 3 mapsedge 1win +8%Liquid · 4 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%64%
1win · 0 mapsedge Liquid +14%Liquid · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanLiquid remove Ancient
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickLiquid take Anubis
5. BanLiquid remove Mirage
6. Ban1win remove Inferno
DeciderCache (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
1win 74%Liquid 26%
The model gave 74% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
1win 27%Liquid 73%
The model gave 73% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
1win 47%Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Liquid — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 75%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3