Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
1win · 11 mapsedge los kogutos +10%los kogutos · 6 maps
Dust2los kogutos ban
75%33%
1win · 8 mapsedge 1win +42%los kogutos · 5 maps
Ancientlos kogutos pick
50%56%
1win · 6 mapsedge los kogutos +6%los kogutos · 5 maps
Anubislos kogutos ban
44%40%
1win · 5 mapsnearly even +4%los kogutos · 1 map
Cache1win pick
57%29%
1win · 3 mapsedge 1win +28%los kogutos · 3 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%67%
1win · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +17%los kogutos · 5 maps
Overpass1win ban
33%50%
1win · 5 mapsedge los kogutos +17%los kogutos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. Banlos kogutos remove Dust2
3. Pick1win take Cache
4. Picklos kogutos take Ancient
5. Banlos kogutos remove Anubis
6. Ban1win remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
1win 87%los kogutos 13%
The model gave 87% on 1win — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
1win 42%los kogutos 58%
The model gave 58% on los kogutos — the map was taken by 1win.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
1win 40%los kogutos 60%
The model gave 60% on los kogutos — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 74%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3