Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNinjas in Pyjamas pick
62%56%
1win · 17 mapsedge 1win +6%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 12 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
60%43%
1win · 26 mapsedge 1win +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
59%47%
1win · 13 mapsedge 1win +12%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 maps
Anubis1win ban
33%44%
1win · 14 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +11%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
Cache1win pick
57%20%
1win · 10 mapsedge 1win +37%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%68%
1win · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +18%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
67%55%
1win · 5 mapsedge 1win +12%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. Pick1win take Cache
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Ancient
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (59% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
1win 69%Ninjas in Pyjamas 31%
The model gave 69% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
1win 53%Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
1win 62%Ninjas in Pyjamas 38%
The model gave 62% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 58%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3