Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Acend#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAcend pick
43%65%
3DMAX · 10 mapsedge Acend +22%Acend · 13 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
58%60%
3DMAX · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Acend · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%54%
3DMAX · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Acend · 9 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
57%38%
3DMAX · 10 mapsedge 3DMAX +19%Acend · 4 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%44%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +6%Acend · 12 maps
AnubisAcend ban
43%44%
3DMAX · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Acend · 5 maps
NukeAcend ban
36%50%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge Acend +14%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickAcend take Inferno
5. BanAcend remove Anubis
6. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (55% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
3DMAX 71%Acend 29%
The model gave 71% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
3DMAX 27%Acend 73%
The model gave 73% on Acend — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 69%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2