Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BBL#62 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
47%43%
3DMAX · 11 mapsnearly even +4%BBL · 3 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
60%40%
3DMAX · 11 mapsedge 3DMAX +20%BBL · 1 map
Ancient3DMAX ban
58%50%
3DMAX · 8 mapsedge 3DMAX +8%BBL · 2 maps
NukeBBL pick
36%43%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge BBL +7%BBL · 3 maps
Dust2BBL ban
55%50%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +5%BBL · 0 maps
AnubisBBL ban
43%50%
3DMAX · 3 mapsedge BBL +7%BBL · 0 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BBL · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Anubis
6. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (47% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:16
3DMAX 72%BBL 28%
The model gave 72% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by BBL.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
3DMAX 40%BBL 60%
The model gave 60% on BBL — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
3DMAX 54%BBL 46%
The model gave 54% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 74%
Series resultBBL 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3