NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientButterfly pick
50%67%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 11 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
56%57%
3DMAX · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Butterfly · 10 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
36%25%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +11%Butterfly · 8 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
25%64%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +39%Butterfly · 10 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
55%71%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +16%Butterfly · 3 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%67%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%63%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Inferno
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Dust2
6. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
3DMAX 66%Butterfly 34%
The model gave 66% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
3DMAX 31%Butterfly 69%
The model gave 69% on Butterfly — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 73%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2