Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoGentle Mates pick
33%63%
3DMAX · 5 mapsedge Gentle Mates +30%Gentle Mates · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%39%
3DMAX · 1 mapnearly even +1%Gentle Mates · 14 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
33%67%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +34%Gentle Mates · 11 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%54%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Gentle Mates · 9 maps
AnubisGentle Mates ban
38%50%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge Gentle Mates +12%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
OverpassGentle Mates ban
50%57%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
67%50%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge 3DMAX +17%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanGentle Mates remove Overpass
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
5. BanGentle Mates remove Anubis
6. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (40% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
3DMAX 18%Gentle Mates 82%
The model gave 82% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
3DMAX 69%Gentle Mates 31%
The model gave 69% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 54%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2