BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
magic#18 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%61%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge magic +11%magic · 14 maps
Ancientmagic pick
38%62%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge magic +24%magic · 9 maps
Inferno3DMAX ban
36%60%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge magic +24%magic · 6 maps
Dust2magic ban
50%45%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge 3DMAX +5%magic · 7 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
60%50%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge 3DMAX +10%magic · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%50%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge magic +12%magic · 2 maps
Nukemagic ban
29%50%
3DMAX · 3 mapsedge magic +21%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Dust2
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
3DMAX 63%magic 37%
The model gave 63% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by magic.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
3DMAX 25%magic 75%
The model gave 75% on magic — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
3DMAX 55%magic 45%
The model gave 55% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 70%
Series result3DMAX 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3