Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN#29 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
40%47%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge paiN +7%paiN · 11 maps
Dust23DMAX pick
50%58%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge paiN +8%paiN · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%56%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge paiN +18%paiN · 5 maps
Inferno3DMAX ban
25%57%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge paiN +32%paiN · 3 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 6 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
33%50%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge paiN +17%paiN · 0 maps
CachepaiN ban
60%40%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge 3DMAX +20%paiN · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
2. BanpaiN remove Cache
3. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (38% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
3DMAX 72%paiN 28%
The model gave 72% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
3DMAX 18%paiN 82%
The model gave 82% on paiN — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 61%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2